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Re: Leila is playing a carnival game in which she is given 4 chances to [#permalink]
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GeminiHeat wrote:
Leila is playing a carnival game in which she is given 4 chances to throw a ball through a hoop. If her chance of success on each throw is 1/5, what is the chance that she will succeed on at least 3 of the throws?

A. \(\frac{1}{5^4}\)

B. \(\frac{1}{5^3}\)

C. \(\frac{6}{5^4}\)

D. \(\frac{13}{5^4}\)

E. \(\frac{17}{5^4}\)


Given: P(succeeds on 1 throw) = 1/5

P(succeeds at least 3 times) = P(succeeds 4 times OR succeeds 3 times)
= P(succeeds 4 times) + P(succeeds 3 times)

P(succeeds 4 times)
P(succeeds 4 times) = P(succeeds 1st time AND succeeds 2nd time AND succeeds 3rd time AND succeeds 4th time)
= P(succeeds 1st time) x P(succeeds 2nd time) x P(succeeds 3rd time) x P(succeeds 4th time)
= 1/5 x 1/5 x 1/5 x 1/5
= 1/5⁴

P(succeeds 3 times)
Let's examine one possible scenario in which Leila succeeds exactly 3 times:
P(FAILS the 1st time AND succeeds 2nd time AND succeeds 3rd time AND succeeds 4th time)
= P(FAILS the 1st time) x P(succeeds 2nd time) x P(succeeds 3rd time) x P(succeeds 4th time)
= 4/5 x 1/5 x 1/5 x 1/5
= 4/5⁴
Keep in mind that this is only ONE possible scenario in which Leila succeeds exactly 3 times (Leila fails the 1st time).
Leila can also FAIL the 2nd time, or the 3rd time or the 4th time.
Each of these probabilities will also equal 4/5³
So, P(succeeds 3 times) = 4/5⁴ + 4/5⁴ + 4/5⁴ + 4/5⁴
= 16/5⁴

So, P(succeeds AT LEAST 3 times) = P(succeeds 4 times) + P(succeeds 3 times)
= 1/5⁴ + 16/5⁴
= 17/5⁴

Answer: E
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