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Re: Al, Bob, Cal and Don each own 1 hat. If the 4 hats are rando [#permalink]
GreenlightTestPrep wrote:
GreenlightTestPrep wrote:
Al, Bob, Cal and Don each own 1 hat. If the 4 hats are randomly distributed so that each man receives exactly 1 hat, what is the probability that no one receives his own hat?

A) 1/8
B) 1/4
C) 1/3
D) 3/8
E) 1/2


I created this question to highlight many students' tendency to avoid listing and counting as a possible approach.
As you'll see, the approach is probably the fastest approach.

P(no one receives his own hat) = (# of outcomes in which no one receives his own hat)/(TOTAL number of outcomes)

# of outcomes in which no one receives his own hat
Let a, b, c and d represent the hats owned by Al (A), Bob (B), Cal (C) and Don (D)
Let's systematically list the HATS to be paired up with A, B, C, and D
A, B, C, D
b, a, d, c
b, c, d, a
b, d, a, c

c, a, d, b
c, d, a, b
c, d, b, a

d, a, b, c
d, c, a, b
d, c, b, a

So, there are 9 outcomes in which one receives his own hat


TOTAL number of outcomes
We can arrange n unique objects in n! ways
So, we can arrange the 4 hats in 4! ways (= 24 ways)
So, there are 24 possible outcomes

P(no one receives his own hat) = 9/24 = 3/8

Answer: D

Cheers,
Brent


Hi, Brent!
Could you explain mathematically why 3/4*2/3*1/2 doesn't work to find the probability in this case? I can see that your answer is correct, it is because you have laid out all the possible scenarios that satisfy the question.
What would be the approach if there were 13 hats and the probability to distribute all of them incorrectly to their owners?
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Re: Al, Bob, Cal and Don each own 1 hat. If the 4 hats are rando [#permalink]
2
khalilullahtaj wrote:
Hi, Brent!
Could you explain mathematically why 3/4*2/3*1/2 doesn't work to find the probability in this case? I can see that your answer is correct, it is because you have laid out all the possible scenarios that satisfy the question.
What would be the approach if there were 13 hats and the probability to distribute all of them incorrectly to their owners?


Let's first reverse-engineer your solution (3/4)(2/3)(1/2)
I believe it goes something like this:

P(no one receives his own hat) = (Al gets a different hat) x (Bob gets a different hat) x (Cal gets a different hat) x (Don gets a different hat)
If Al is the first person to receive a hat, then P(Al gets a different hat) = 3/4 (this matches your solution)

Now let's examine two possible cases with regard to the hat that Al receives
case i: Al receives Bob's hat. After that, there are 3 hats remaining, and none of them belong to Bob. So, P(Bob gets a different hat) = 3/3
case ii: Al receives Don's hat. After that, there are 3 hats remaining, and one of them belongs to Bob. So, P(Bob gets a different hat) = 2/3
So, we already have a problem since we have two different values for P(Bob gets a different hat).

Does that help?
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Re: Al, Bob, Cal and Don each own 1 hat. If the 4 hats are rando [#permalink]
1
thanks a lot for the solution.
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Re: Al, Bob, Cal and Don each own 1 hat. If the 4 hats are rando [#permalink]
It is a nice explanation, but maybe there is a mathematical solution for a case there will be more than 4 people?
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Re: Al, Bob, Cal and Don each own 1 hat. If the 4 hats are rando [#permalink]
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Re: Al, Bob, Cal and Don each own 1 hat. If the 4 hats are rando [#permalink]
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