Carcass wrote:
On the planned day of a picnic, there is a 30% chance of rain. If it rains, there is a 50% chance that the picnic will be canceled, but if it doesn't rain, the picnic will take place. What is the chance that the picnic will take place?
A) 15%
B) 30%
C) 50%
D) 70%
E: 85%
P(picnic takes place) = P(no rain
AND the picnic takes place
OR it rains
AND the picnic takes place)
= [P(no rain)
x P(the picnic takes place given that there was no rain)]
+ [P(rain)
x P(the picnic takes place given that it rained)]
= [0.7
x 1]
+ [0.3
x 0.5]
= 0.7 + 0.15
= 0.85
= 85%
Answer: E