Carcass wrote:
Beginning on Monday, once each day, Hector auditions for a role as a movie extra, and at each audition, he has a 1/3 probability of being hired. If he stops auditioning once he is hired for the first time, what is the probability he is hired before the end of Wednesday?
A) \(\frac{1}{3}\)
B) \(\frac{5}{9}\)
C) \(\frac{2}{3}\)
D) \(\frac{19}{27}\)
E) 1
Note: If P(Hector is hired) = 1/3, then P(Hector is NOT hired) = 2/3If Hector is hired before the end of Wednesday, and that means Hector was hired on Monday OR on Tuesday OR on Wednesday.
Rather than consider all three possible cases, we can save some time by using the complement.
That is:
P(hired before end of Wednesday) = 1 - P(NOT hired before end of Wednesday)P(NOT hired before end of Wednesday)P(NOT hired before end of Wednesday) = P(NOT hired on Monday
AND NOT hired on Tuesday
AND NOT hired on Wednesday)
= P(NOT hired on Monday)
x P(NOT hired on Tuesday)
x P(NOT hired on Wednesday)
= 2/3
x 2/3
x 2/3
=
8/27So,
P(hired before end of Wednesday) = 1 - 8/27= 27/27 - 8/27
= 19/27
Answer: D