The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"Jazz music is extremely popular in the city of Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Also, a number of well-known jazz musicians own homes in Monroe. Nevertheless, the nearest jazz club is over an hour away. Given the popularity of jazz in Monroe and a recent nationwide study indicating that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment, we predict that our new jazz music club in Monroe will be a tremendously profitable enterprise."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.


In order to decide whether the new Jazz music club in Monroe would be tremendously profitable according to the developers’ argument, there are more details that are required. These details are essential in gaining a full understanding of the success the new jazz club would be prone to.

According to the developers, a large number of people attended the annual jazz festival in Monroe. Although they state the festival was successful last summer, they fail to provide details about the previous years. There is no guarantee that the previous summer was the not the only year that had a large number of attendees; if it was the only successful year, the jazz festival in Monroe would not be sufficient evidence for developing a successful jazz club. Another aspect that is not revealed by the developers is the percent of people who attended the jazz festival native to the city of Monroe. It is possible that the majority of people traveled long distances in order to attend the annual festival, and would not be wiling to go to these lengths to attend the new jazz music club.

Another question that has to be answered in order to evaluate the developers’ argument includes the obtaining more details about the nationwide study about the typical jazz fan. It is necessary to know the number of jazz fans used for the study, as a large number of people is required to obtain an accurate representation of how much a jazz fan would spend. In addition, the study fails to mention the areas as ‘typical’ is a very loose definition. The study would be in favor of the developers’ argument if the majority of jazz fans who spent $1,000 on jazz music resided in Monroe. Otherwise, it would not make a difference if these fans were in a different state, or city.

The developers use the argument that a number of jazz-musicians reside in Monroe. This statement does not support the developers’ application unless more questions are answered regarding the nature of these musicians. This includes inquiring into the interest these musicians would have attending a jazz club, as it can not be assumed they would attend. For instance, these musicians might be reluctant to join as they are too busy campaigning for their music. In this case, having jazz musicians in Monroe would not make the jazz club more profitable.

Deciding on whether a new jazz club in Monroe would be profitable requires more details and answered questions than the developers’ provided in their application. It is necessary to obtain the number of people residing in Monroe who were used in the study, along with those who attended the annual jazz festival. Furthermore, a survey inquiring about the interest of the jazz musicians residing in Monroe to attend the jazz club would be necessary in order to make a decision about the success and profitability of the new jazz music club.