Woven baskets characterized by a particular distinctive pattern have previously been found only in the immediate vicinity of the prehistoric village of Palea and therefore were believed to have been made only by the Palean people. Recently, however, archaeologists discovered such a "Palean" basket in Lithos, an ancient village across the Brim River from Palea. The Brim River is very deep and broad, and so the ancient Paleans could have crossed it only by boat, and no Palean boats have been found. Thus it follows that the so-called Palean baskets were not uniquely Palean.



The author in his argument infers that the presence of a single Palean basket in Lithos and the absence of proper means of river transportation could only mean that the baskets were not unique to Palea. This relies on a number of assumptions, and alternative theories can easily be proffered to explain the evidence.

The one thing that strikes out in the evidence is the presence of one, only one basket in Lithos. If Palean basket was not unique and was possible to have been woven in other villages as well, we would have found substantially more baskets. One basket is too small sample to make a sound judgement and will generally be treated as an outlier by statisticians.

To explain the presence of a basket in the village across the broad and deep river, several more believable theories can be provided which will weaken the argument that lack of river transportation restricted any possibility of exporting baskets. There can be many environmental factors which can result in baskets being found in the other village. Huge gusts of wind or tidal waves from the river can all result in transferring objects from one shore to the other. Also, baskets are light, so it is not unimaginable that they might have been easily carried away by current drifts in the air or water. Large birds such as eagles and hawks which can carry animals the size of goat may also have been responsible for transferring the baskets across the river.
It is also important to note that geographical terrains and landscapes alter significantly over time. It might have been possible that in the past, the Brim river was not as deep or broad, or that the lands of Lithos and Palea may be close enough to facilitate the transport of baskets. Landmasses separated into the seven continents over large periods of time. Natural calamities like tsunami and earthquakes are known to cause massive shifts in terrains. It is not impossible for the presence or structure of present-day Brim river to be a consequence of other unknown factors. The author states the Brim river "is" deep and broad. The author needs to take into account the geography of the past, not the present to positively support his claim.

There may also have been other means of transportation between Palea and Lithos, which may not have been discovered yet by archaeologists. The author claims that transportation of baskets was impossible due to the Brim river and absence of boats. We have already discussed why the Brim river is not a concrete argument, but the absence of boats is also not a cogent reason provided. Just the absence of boats does not impede crossing the river. There may have been bridges, possibly collapsed under the Brim river today and hence undiscovered, that might have facilitated travelling. The author of the argument, hence needs to further analyze the historical and geographical aspects associated with the situation, in light of the alternative explanations we just discussed to provide a more concrete argument.


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