Re: Historical demographers have generally agreed on two interrelated feat
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08 Jun 2021, 17:38
Thanks a lot for the comment.
Yet I still find the reasoning far-fetched. Here I try to apply a “textualistic” reading of this passage, without assuming any so-called right answers. In case I missed some pieces in my reasoning, any comment would be much appreciated.
Passage:
① Historical demographers have generally agreed on two interrelated features of the urban populations in early-modern Germany.
② First in accordance with the law of natural decrease, extremely high mortality rates in cities (urban areas with more than10.000 inhabitants) meant that their populations could not be sustained by reproduction alone.
==> city mortality rate > city birth rate <==> law of natural decrease (of population), thus "their populations could not be sustained by reproduction alone."
③ Population density, inadequate sanitary conditions, and poor housing made cities too vulnerable to disease and death.
==> city mortality rate causes.
④ Second, when city populations did increase, it was as a result of in-migration sufficient to overcome the population losses caused by the high mortality.
==> city birth rate + in-migration - city mortality = city population net increase, thus "in-migration sufficient to overcome the population losses" shown in ②.
⑤ But because the parish registers of urban communities with fewer than 10.000 inhabitants show that the annual number of births usually equaled or exceeded that of deaths, historical demographers assume that the law of natural decrease did not apply to small towns.
==>
(1) small town birth >= small town death <==> small town birth - small town death = small town population net increase / no change <==> law of natural decrease does not apply.
(2) NO such comparisons yet: small town birth/death rate vs. city birth/death rate, i.e., nothing has been said whether the small town mortality rate is absolutely high or relatively higher.
(3) No need for in-migration, albeit not mentioned in ⑤, to make population increase for small towns, thus Q2-B) is out of scope, at best.
(4) Q2-C) is one of the two scenarios (net increase or stable), thus False.
Here is an example best illustrating my wondering:
(1) City A population 10000. Birth rate 0.1 and mortality rate 0.2, with in-migration 2000 => net annual increase of city population by 1000.
(2) A small town B with population 1000. Birth rate 0.4 and mortality 0.3 => net annual increase of small town population by 100.
My first reading of the passage revealed itself as a typical GRE Comparative Question in Quant Section: Be careful about making comparative judgements w.r.t. absolute numbers and ratios when no such comparison info is explicitly given.
Here for this passage whether there are "correct" answers or not is less important though. What puzzles me is the reasonings adopted to reach an answer.