Official Explanation

Argument Construction

Which one of the statements gives an assumption on which the argument depends?

The argument claims that exports of U.S. wood pulp will increase this year. Support for this claim is provided by the suggestion that as a result of the falling value of the dollar, paper manufacturers in Japan and Western Europe will be able to purchase wood pulp (the raw material for paper) more cheaply from the United States than from any other source.

This would be true because, if the dollar prices of U.S. wood pulp did not increase, firms in Europe and Japan would pay a smaller dollar-equivalent of their own currencies.

Note that this argument can easily fail: if U.S. wood pulp does not meet the minimum quality requirements of any paper manufacturers in Japan or Western Europe, then those manufacturers will purchase elsewhere. It follows that the reasoning depends on assuming that U.S. wood pulp does in fact meet those quality standards.

A. Even if factory output of paper products did not increase this year, manufacturers in Japan and Europe might import more U.S. wood pulp this year as raw materials for next year's production.

B. Correct. The predicted increase would likely not occur unless U.S. wood pulp met the manufacturers' minimum-quality standards.

C. The reasoning does not have to assume that cost is the sole factor. However, it clearly assumes that cost is an important factor. Nevertheless, it does not make any assumption regarding what the relative importance of cost and other factors might be. For this reason, it neither assumes nor implies what might happen in the case that cost is not a significant factor.

D. The reasoning does not need to assume that no such sharp increase will occur this year. In fact, if such an increase were to occur, it would be even more likely that exports of
U.S. wood pulp would increase this year if U.S. wood pulp became internationally more competitive on price this year.

E. Given the prediction that U.S. wood-pulp exports will increase, there is no reason to assume no sharp increase in U.S. wood pulp production during this year. Such an increase might even be likely if exports were to rise considerably. Therefore, option E is not assumed by the argument.

The correct answer is B.