The conclusion is that "these declines [in the percentage who retire to Florida] are likely to have a noticeably negative economic effect on these businesses and therefore on the economy of Florida." How does the author arrive at this conclusion?
- In the United States, some people move from one state to another when they retire. For example, a person who lives in the state of Minnesota might retire and move to Florida (where it's warmer!).
- Of those people who moved when they retired, "the percentage (not the total number) who retired to Florida has decreased by three percentage points over the past ten years." - For example, if 23% of those people retired to Florida ten years ago, then only 20% retired to Florida this year.
- "Many local businesses in Florida cater to retirees." - If Florida is gradually becoming a less popular state for retirement, that could be bad those local businesses and, therefore, for Florida's economy.
We know that the PERCENTAGE has decreased, but has the total NUMBER of people retiring to Florida also decreased? If not, then the argument falls apart.
Which of the following, if true, most seriously weakens the argument given?
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(A) People who moved from one state to another when they retired moved a greater distance, on average, last year than such people did ten years ago.
The distance these people moved does not impact the argument at all. Has the number of people retiring to Florida decreased? (A) is irrelevant, so eliminate this one.
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(B) People were more likely to retire to North Carolina from another state last year than people were ten years ago.
The percentage retiring to North Carolina has increased. So what? We already know that the percentage retiring to Florida has decreased. We still don't know whether the total
number of people retiring to Florida has decreased. (B) does not weaken the argument, so eliminate (B).
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(C) The number of people who moved from one state to another when they retired has increased significantly over the past ten years.
Ah ha! We are told that the
percentage has decreased. Percentage of what? Of the number of people who move from one state to another when they retire. If the size of that group has increased significantly over the past ten years, then the
total number of people retiring to Florida may have actually increased, even though the
percentage slightly decreased.
If (C) is true, then the argument falls apart. Keep this one.
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(D) The number of people who left Florida when they retired to live in another state was greater last year than it was ten years ago.
This actually helps the author's argument. A smaller percentage is retiring to Florida AND more people are
leaving Florida when they retire! This is probably bad news for local businesses. (D) strengthens the argument, so eliminate this one.
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(E) Florida attracts more people who move from one state to another when they retire than does any other state.
(E) tells us that Florida is #1. But maybe it was also #1 ten years ago. At that time, the second-most-popular state may have trailed Florida by a huge margin. Maybe now that margin is pretty small.
So even if (E) is true, the total number of people retiring to Florida may have decreased over the past ten years. (E) does not necessarily weaken the argument, so eliminate this one.
(C) is the best answer.
19 Oct 2022, 00:17
31% (01:46) correct
