The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"The population on Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island plans to limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. Last year, the neighboring island of Torseau enforced similar limits on moped rentals and saw a 50 percent reduction in moped accidents. We predict that putting these limits into effect on Balmer Island will result in the same reduction in moped accidents."

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanation(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

Response:-


The argument claims that by decreasing the number of mopeds rented by the moped rental companies will reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians.Stated in this way the argument fails to mention several key factors ,on the basis of which it could be evaluated.The conclusion of the argument relies on assumptions for which there is no clear evidence .Hence the argument is weak ,unconvincing and has several flaws.


Firstly,the argument readily assumes that by decreasing the number of mopeds rented by rental companies from 50 to 30 per day will cause the reduction of mopeds and pedestrians accidents.However, by limiting the number of mopeds from 50 to 30 per day will cause more number of pedestrians leading to greater risk of accidents.Moreover,imposing restriction on moped rental companies may result in diversifying into two or more company overall the number of mopeds remain same and the restriction will be ineffective.


Second,the argument assumes that there will be a reduction of 50 percent as same as torseau island. How author can assume that by limiting the number of mopeds from 50 per day to 30 per day will bring down the accident percent down to 50? There is no proof supporting this data. Proportional decrease in mopeds rental will bring proportional decrease in accident percent would have supported the argument.


Finally,the author compares the present situation of balmer island to the last year situation of torseau island which is irrelevant.May be the population of balmer island is more than the population of torseau island in summer thats why the number of accidents are more in balmer island than torseau.It is not necessary that applying the same policy to balmer as torseau will result same as in torseau.


In conclusion, the argument is flawed for the above mentioned reason and is therefore unconvincing.In order to assess the merits of a certain situation ,it is essential to have a full knowledgeof all contributing factors. It could be considerably strengthened if the author clearly mentioned the similarities between two island and provided statical data.Without this information,the argument remains unsubstantiated and open to debate.






ISSUE


People's behavior is largely determined by forces not of their own making.
Write a response in which you discuss the extent to which you agree or disagree with the statement and explain your reasoning for the position you take. In developing and supporting your position, you should consider ways in which the statement might or might not hold true and explain how these considerations shape your position.

Response:


Behavior is a part of personality of an individual.It shows how a person reacts into a given situation.Everyday we come across certain situations where we would have reacted in ways that comes naturally to us. The topic is trying to reason out what affects the behavior in people or cause changes in their behavior.It state that behavior is moulded more by the external forces than the self made .I believe that external factors significantly affects ones behavior.


Lets start from the point of our childhood.Don't our personalities reflect what we faced in our childhood? For example, a child who was brought up in a calm and peaceful content family will be far more composed and balanced in behavior.A child belonging to the family of moral values will grew up with a strong character.Here, the forces that determine our behavior is our family.On the other hand, if a person lives up in a company of negative environment it will show up in his character.


Taking more positive outlook, most of our leaders who came from humble background but now changed into a vibrant people after facing the real world.Like Shahrukh khan who was one of the most influential people listed by forbes.He came into the movie world without having any movie background. Started from the bottom and now he's changed into a dynamic personality because of both the challenges he faced and support that he received from the world.


In conclusion, behavior works alot how a person current mindset is and the mindset is largly affected by the external challanges he face. Even a pessimistic person can turned into an optimist if he's provided with a good set of friends and book that can motivate him.Thus it is the forces around us ,from the birth to the end of our lives that determine our behavior and hence our personality.